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Sunday, September 3rd 2006

A Study Break…

…that is far too long.

Last year I took a look at how the BCS stacked up against the AP in terms of predicting success week to week. My methods were about as scientific as the time I “tested” the blender by putting grapes in and leaving the top off while it ran.

It Worked Out About As Well As Chan Gailey’s Play Calling

Basically upsets added points to a ranking’s score by taking the difference between the team’s place in the polls. The ranking system/poll with the fewest points at the end of the season was supposedly the most accurate. It was pretty simplistic. It could’ve used some work and I was going to give it this season (once the BCS starts up) and expand to compare all six of the BCS computer rankings (along with the two more in the form of the defunct FACT rankings and Sagarin’s Predictor, which use the banned margin of victory), the AP poll, the Coaches’ poll, and the Harris poll.

I still might but I have found some guys much, much better at this sort of thing. Markmaybewrong is a great college football blog which is dedicated to judging the pundits and polls. Not only will it keep track of the network pundit’s predictions over the season, but they’re also watching the polls for their ability to predict success. They have a great three part history already up, with incredible analysis of the “success” of the AP poll. Take a look at part 1 and part 2 and part 3 of the preseason crapshoot.

Who Will Prevail On The “Suck-O-Meter?” My Money Is On The Genius Guy In The Headgear.