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Sunday, September 24th 2006

October Surprise

Sean Connery Has Nothing To Do With This October Surprise

A lot has been made about Karl Rove promising an october surprise to push the Republicans to victory in the midterm elections.

In the past week, Karl Rove has been promising Republican insiders an “October surprise” to help win the November congressional elections.

Rove is not saying what the October surprise will be.

A lot of speculation centered around something to do with bin Laden. And that was before a French intelligence report leaked claiming Osama is dead from typhoid.

[T]he French newspaper L’Est Republicain cited a report by the French intelligence service, Direction Generale des Services Exteriors (DGSE), saying that Saudi intelligence officials “seem to have become convinced that Osama bin Laden is dead.” The report quoted by the newspaper said the Saudis believe bin Laden “might have succumbed to a very serious case of typhoid fever resulting in partial paralysis of his lower limbs while in Pakistan on August 23, 2006.” Echoing that report, a Saudi source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told TIME that Saudi officials have received multiple reports over the last several weeks that Bin Laden has been suffering from a water-borne illness. “This is not a rumor,” said the source. “He is very ill. He got a water-related sickness and it could be terminal… But we don’t have any concrete information to say that he is dead.”

The Saudis, the Pakistanis, the U.S., and Chirac in France all deny the report.

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it had no evidence Osama bin Laden had died, shedding further doubt on a secret document leaked in France that said Saudi secret services believed he had died last month.

France, the United States and Britain all said earlier they were unable to confirm the report in French regional daily L’Est Republicain, which quoted the DGSE foreign intelligence service.

If you bought the stories of Rove running his mouth on an ‘october surprise’ you might’ve thought (like myself), that this was the surprise leaked a little early. The French are always doing stuff like that.

But, if you’re on the more fringe (sort of the liberal version of those conservatives who thought Iran was going to end the world on August 22nd), you might think war with Iran is the october surprise.

Thank God for former Senator Gary Hart, for giving me more Iran junk to post on.

It should come as no surprise if the Bush Administration undertakes a preemptive war against Iran sometime before the November election.

[T]he president will speak on national television. He will say this: Iran is determined to develop nuclear weapons; if this happens, the entire region will go nuclear; our diplomatic efforts to prevent this have failed; Iran is offering a haven to known al Qaeda leaders; the fate of our ally Israel is at stake; Iran persists in supporting terrorism, including in Iraq; and sanctions will have no affect (and besides they are for sissies). He will not say: …and besides, we need the oil.

Therefore, he will announce, our own national security and the security of the region requires us to act. “Tonight, I have ordered the elimination of all facilities in Iran that are dedicated to the production of weapons of mass destruction…..” In the narrowest terms this includes perhaps two dozen targets.

A strike? Maybe. But I even doubt that. A military invasion with ground forces? No chance. You don’t even have to think that Bush cares for international opinion or has a rational foriegn policy to come to that conclusion.

However much Israel fears Iran, an Iranian bombing campaign would have dramatic consequences for them. It would have the same for Iraq, and very quickly. Not AFTER the elections, but BEFORE them. Within days or a week of an Iranian strike we may be witnessing thousands of retalitory American servicemen deaths in Iraq.

Such outcomes would certainly cost the Republicans the election. And while you may believe Bush to be completely off base in factoring international reactions, Karl Rove is no fool when it comes to American public opinion.

Clearly we simply do not have the military base, as long as Iraq continues, to put men on the ground in Iran. It isn’t a matter of stretching the military thinner. We simply do not have the men. It would be physically impossible to ‘occupy’ both countries at once.

Finally, and the most compelling reason, is that a military strike would draw strong public dissension! Gary Hart is the same man who understands voter opinion so well that he challenged the media to follow him around while he was having an affair and then tried to pass of extramartial relations as innocent. This while running for the ’88 Democratic nomination. He clearly has no clue how the public would react to an Iranian attack. Nothing Bush could say or do would sell the public on such an action.

A military strike on Iran would further increase the distance between the Democrats and Republicans in these midterm elections. You can argue all day that Bush is crazy enough to do it, that he thinks it is the right thing. Don’t argue however that Karl Rove is going to whip this out to lead the Republicans to victory.

Captain’s Quarters has picked up on Hart’s rantings and reminds us of other Democrat conspiracy theories involving election ‘surprises’