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Saturday, April 28th 2007

Delusional On Cornyn

The title is an overstatement. That continuing talk of Cornyn’s imminent demise doesn’t quite rise to delusional. The fact is, the more you talk about Cornyn’s weakness, the more it becomes a reality. So you can’t fault them.

if Burka and BOR and others think Cornyn is actually going to be taken down by absolutely anyone (short of say, Lance Armstrong…jk, kind’ve), then they must be masochistic.

Following the HB&S poll commissioned by the DSCC, comes word of a SuveryUSA poll showing even worse unfavorable numbers for Senator John Cornyn.

The Dems hope to replace Cornyn? Per Roll Call (h/t Political Insider) we’re talking about two-time Lt. Governor candidate (and loser) John Sharp, Nick Lampson, and attorney/fundraiser Mikal Watts.

Two points:

  • Are you kidding me? SuveryUSA has consistently overstated Cornyn’s unfavorables. Internal polls, Scripps-Howard, and this Hamilton-Beattie poll all show statistically significant lower unfavorables. Check this November Cornyn-Hutchinson favorable-unfavorable.
  • Who are the Dems going to put out there? As Political Insider points out – there’s almost no chance the Dem candidate will have better favorables or name recognition than Cornyn.

    John Sharp is conservative Democrat. His credentials include: a nearly decade old time as state comptroller and two failed bids for lieutenant governor. The definition of used goods.

    Mikal Watts? A wealthy, proven fundraiser. That’s no chance you’re going to be able to out spend Cornyn and the Republican establishment. So are you going to trade whatever Watts brings to the table funding wise, for his novice status? His name being thrown in can’t be anything but a tip of the hat to his service to the Democratic Party in South Texas.

    Nick Lampson is a proven politician and fundraiser, driven out of the House by Tom Delay’s redistricting. He got considerable statewide/nationwide exposure from his run for Delay’s old 22nd seat. But, I don’t care how conservative the 22nd is or how much conservative money went into the 22nd, the fact is his performance against Shelly Sekula-Gibbs was abysmal!

    42% for a write in candidate with a hyphenated name? (And I’m not kidding that that was a hindrance to people voting for her). I mean, it’s understandable why Nick Lampson would be interested in running for Senate, it is hard to imagine him holding onto his seat. But 42%? To a candidate like Shelly Sekula-Gibbs? In one of the most favorable midterm years for the Dremocratic party of all time? And you think that sets up Nick Lampson to win a statewide election? In Texas?

See…dreams of splitting Texas’ Senate seats almost rise to the level of delusional.